: This phrase is a powerful tool for self-correction. When we frame our beliefs as "bets" with stakes, we naturally begin to question our certainty, look for "blind spots," and acknowledge the probability of being wrong.
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Saying "I don't know" isn't a sign of weakness; it's an accurate reflection of reality. Expressing your confidence in percentages (e.g., "I'm 70% sure this project will succeed") keeps you open to new information and helps you avoid black-and-white thinking. thinking in bets annie duke pdf