Weinberger was wrong about the timing (the USSR collapsed in 1991, not in a 1987 tank battle). But he was terrifyingly right about the nature of American hesitation. As the US debates intervention in foreign conflicts today, the ghost of Weinberger sits in the room, asking the uncomfortable question: Are you willing to win? And do you have the guts to stay until you do?
After the U.S. withdraws troops from South Korea, a North Korean invasion triggers a conflict. China uses the distraction to seize strategic islands in the South China Sea. Iran (1999):
The impact of reduced defense budgets on fleet sizes, forward bases, and troop preparedness. The Five Scenarios of "The Next War"
Preparing for the Unthinkable: A Look Back at Caspar Weinberger’s "The Next War"
But why, nearly four decades later, is this document still so sought after? What does it contain that makes the modern reader—facing cyberwarfare, AI drones, and great power competition—pull out their digital magnifying glass?
Weinberger was wrong about the timing (the USSR collapsed in 1991, not in a 1987 tank battle). But he was terrifyingly right about the nature of American hesitation. As the US debates intervention in foreign conflicts today, the ghost of Weinberger sits in the room, asking the uncomfortable question: Are you willing to win? And do you have the guts to stay until you do?
After the U.S. withdraws troops from South Korea, a North Korean invasion triggers a conflict. China uses the distraction to seize strategic islands in the South China Sea. Iran (1999):
The impact of reduced defense budgets on fleet sizes, forward bases, and troop preparedness. The Five Scenarios of "The Next War"
Preparing for the Unthinkable: A Look Back at Caspar Weinberger’s "The Next War"
But why, nearly four decades later, is this document still so sought after? What does it contain that makes the modern reader—facing cyberwarfare, AI drones, and great power competition—pull out their digital magnifying glass?